It has a recent eruptive history littered with VEI 4s and 5s, and is known for large pyroclastic flows. 32,000 ft (10 km) –into the stratosphere– often linger where they have a direct cooling effect on terrestrial temperatures below. Very simply, particulates ejected to altitudes above approx. Volcanic eruptions are one of the key forcings driving Earth into its next bout of global cooling with their activity tied to low solar activity and the resulting influx of magma-penetrating Cosmic Rays. #volcan #volcano #Shiveluch The explosion cannot be seen from webcams due to clouds but the Himawari 8 satellite allows to spot it /gPneT2L86b- CultureVolcan April 10, 2022 Īccompanying the unseasonable cold will be heavy late-season snow, particularly in Ontario, the Dakotas and Nebraska:
GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) April 12 – April 24. Such conditions will counter the anomalous warmth enjoyed over the past few days in a setup serving as yet another example of the swing between extremes prevalent during times of historically low solar activity.Ĭities such as Reno and Nevada are forecast highs in the 40s Tuesday after enjoying near 80F warmth late last week but from Alaska to Alabama, the next 14 days will see potentially record-breaking low temperatures sweep the majority of the continent.Īccording to the latest GFS run, departures from the norm could be as great as -24C below, particularly in central regions: If this plays out it would mean an earlier start to Solar Cycle 26–a key cycle for reasons detailed above.Ī buckling jet stream is about to drop frigid Arctic air into much of North America this week. And while things are currently tracking slightly ahead of schedule, NOAA don’t believe that the cycle will peak much higher than SC24 instead, they simply see the peak arriving earlier, in late-2024. The official forecast by the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel (made in 2019, and visualized by the red line above) called for a weak cycle 25, peaking in mid-2025. Overlaying the peak of these past civilizations atop the GISP2 Ice Core data clearly illustrates the pattern: The periods of Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warming are all evidence of this.
Historical documentation reveals human civilizations expand and flourish during prolonged spells of warmth (aka Grand Solar Maximums –such as the Modern Maximum: ≈1920 to ≈2000) and, conversely, contract and collapse during extended cool downs (i.e. The following cycle (SC26) is expected, by many, to be even weaker than SC24 and SC25, perhaps even nonexistent - a reality that could spell disastrous news for humanity. Back then, panel co-chair Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp, announced: “We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24 … another weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum.” Solar cycle 25, at least so far, is offering minimal relief from the multidecadal drop-off in solar output that we’re experiencing - what we’re in is an extended period of low solar activity not seen since the Dalton Minimum (1795-1835).Īnd although anything can happen from here –there are even credible forecasts still calling for a record strong SC25– things appear to be progressing in line with those original Solar Cycle Prediction Panel projections from 2019. Global temperatures will likely continue their well-established correlation with solar activity - and decrease. Solar Cycle 25 progression (green line) compared to 24, 23, 22 & 21
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